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Top Economist: U.S. Teetering on Recession as Tariffs and Immigration Crackdowns Stall Growth

The U.S. economy is showing multiple signs of slipping into a recession, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. In a series of warnings, he pointed to weakening job growth, flat consumer spending, and contracting construction and manufacturing sectors. With core inflation still elevated at 2.8%, Zandi cautioned that the Federal Reserve may be unable to stimulate growth without worsening inflation.

The July jobs report showed just 73,000 new jobs, and downward revisions to previous months slashed the average three-month gain to just 35,000. Zandi also blamed Trump-era tariffs and restrictive immigration policies for undercutting corporate profits, reducing consumer purchasing power, and shrinking the labor force—particularly through a 1.2 million drop in foreign-born workers over six months.

Economists at JPMorgan echoed these concerns, calling the slowdown in private sector hiring—now averaging just 52,000 new jobs per month—a reliable precursor to recession. While the unemployment rate remains stable, Zandi warns that stagnant labor force participation is masking deeper economic fragility. Read More. 

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Trump Deploys Nuclear Submarines After Russian Official Warns of “Step Toward War”

In response to a provocative tweet from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Donald Trump announced the deployment of two nuclear-capable submarines to unspecified regions. Medvedev, now deputy chair of Russia’s security council, criticized Trump’s recent ultimatum to Russia over Ukraine—shortening his proposed peace deadline from 50 days to 10—as “a threat and a step toward war.”

Trump, citing the need to “protect our people,” emphasized the power of words and warned against unintended consequences. The move is seen by analysts as a rhetorical escalation rather than a shift in military posture, since U.S. submarines already patrol globally.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin offered no concessions toward Trump’s ceasefire demands, stating his desire for a "stable peace" but giving no ground. The latest peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled in Istanbul, while attacks on Ukrainian cities continue. Read More.