_{US NEWS}

Tariffs have surprising effect on unemployment and inflation patterns, Fed analysis reveals

A new analysis from the San Francisco Federal Reserve shows that tariffs have unexpected and shifting effects on inflation and unemployment. Using 40 years of global trade data, economists found that immediately after tariffs rise, unemployment tends to increase and inflation falls, acting like a demand shock as both consumers and businesses pull back spending.

Over time, the pattern reverses: unemployment returns to normal levels while inflation rises, peaking about three years after the tariff change. The economists note that this happens because tariffs disrupt supply chains, increase business costs, and delay investment decisions.

However, they warn that today’s U.S. tariffs—jumping from about 3% to around 18%—are far larger than anything in the historical data, making predictions less reliable. Current inflation has climbed back to 3% and unemployment has risen to 4.4%, but government shutdown disruptions make trends harder to track.

Overall, the Fed’s takeaway is: tariffs act as a near-term brake on demand, but over time they fuel higher inflation — and today’s tariff levels are unlike anything in modern history. Read More.

_{US NEWS}

Um … Is Donald Trump Seriously Going to Start a War with Venezuela?

The article argues that President Trump is bypassing democratic norms and legal limits—both at home and abroad—by aggressively targeting Venezuela and its leader, Nicolás Maduro. While Maduro is an autocrat who likely lost the 2024 election, the Trump administration has escalated far beyond previous U.S. policy, effectively waging a low-grade, unauthorized conflict.

Over the past three months, the administration has carried out nearly two dozen military strikes on Venezuelan-linked fishing boats, flown U.S. aircraft near Venezuela’s coast, labeled Maduro’s government a terrorist organization, and confirmed upcoming CIA operations inside the country. These moves are happening with no congressional approval, minimal public support, and little international backing. Polls show most Americans don’t view Venezuela as a major threat and want clearer justification.

Critics say the administration’s actions mirror the prelude to the Iraq War—but with even less oversight. The article contends that political motives, personal animosity toward Maduro, and the influence of anti-Maduro figures (like Marco Rubio and Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado) may be driving policy more than legitimate national-security concerns. Read More.