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Inflation’s Back (Sort Of)—Will the Fed Blink?

Despite higher tariffs under President Trump, inflation has remained relatively subdued—until now. Economists expect June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) to show the biggest increase since the new tariffs began, possibly signaling the start of tariff-related inflation. The Fed’s interest rate decisions may hinge on this data.

Several factors have delayed the inflation impact: companies stockpiled imports, oil prices dropped, and housing costs cooled. Still, goods like tools, furniture, and cars are now inching up in price, and core inflation is forecast to hit 0.3% for June, pushing the annual rate toward 3%.

However, economists at Wells Fargo and Citi see any inflation as temporary and narrow. They expect it to ease again by 2026.

The Fed may still cut interest rates later this year—especially if the labor market weakens further, with recent job growth slowing and unemployment claims hitting a 4-year high. Read More. 

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Storefronts Are Shuttering, Food Banks Are Packed—Is This the New Normal?

The U.S. is facing a surge in food insecurity and retail closures, signaling deep cracks in the economy. As of May 2025, 15.6% of adults report food insecurity—nearly double the rate from 2021, when expanded government support temporarily eased hardship. Now, with those programs rolled back, food banks are overwhelmed, especially in Southern states like Georgia, where one in five children and one in ten seniors go hungry.

Store closures are also rising sharply: over 5,800 closures have been recorded as of late June—on pace to break records, far outpacing new store openings. Mass layoffs from major employers like Intel and Levi Strauss add to the strain, echoing the wave of job cuts seen during the 2008–2009 recession.

Meanwhile, the housing market is sending up red flags. Condo sales and prices are plunging, especially in Florida and Texas, where oversupply and falling demand have driven some sellers to list units under $10,000.

Together, these indicators paint a stark picture: economic hardship is growing, and for millions, the crisis is already here. Rising costs, stagnant wages, and the collapse of pandemic-era safety nets are pushing more Americans into instability. Read More.